Lots of Coffee, But a Market? Erol Işık from Mikel Coffee Turkey: The True Measure of Growth
As the number of coffee brands and stores increases in Türkiye, the question of how healthy this growth is is becoming a more important one. What demand does a new store meet? What is the franchise investor buying? How does a chain maintain cup quality and store profitability while growing?
In the final installment of our four-part coffee series prepared for World Coffee Day, we speak with Erol Işık, Deputy General Manager and Franchise Systems, Management and Investment Consultant at Mikel Coffee Turkey, about location decisions, franchise responsibilities, sustainable growth, and the true cost of a cup of coffee in 2030.
According to Işık, the sector needs systems that can combine differentiation with the right location, a qualified team, and healthy store economics. Because as the number of stores increases, the organization that manages those stores also needs to develop at the same rate.
Beyond population and visibility, what demand data do you use to make decisions about opening stores in new cities?
A city having a high population or a good-looking street doesn't automatically mean it's the right investment. For us, the real question is: "Is there a sustainable coffee consumption habit in this location?"
Therefore, in addition to population, we evaluate pedestrian and vehicular traffic, the times of day when activity occurs, and the distribution of the working, student, and resident population in the area. The density and performance of competitors, commercial attractions, consumer spending capacity, and the behavior of the location on different days are also part of this evaluation.
Ultimately, there's a fundamental equation to consider from an investment perspective: the store's projected turnover, investment amount, rent burden, and operating expenses.
A crowded location isn't always a good location. A good location is one where the right customer base consumes frequently enough and where the store's economics are sustainable.
In addition to the growth story, what “disturbing truth” needs to be clearly communicated to the franchise investor?
I think the most important truth is this: Franchising is not an investment model where success is bought.
An investor gets involved in a strong brand, a tried and tested business model, know-how, and an operational system. However, no brand can guarantee success in a store located in the wrong place, poorly managed, or lacking sufficient effort.
The franchisor's responsibility is to establish the right system, guide the investor correctly, and continuously improve the system. The investor's responsibility is to operate that system with discipline.
Therefore, simply telling the investor how many stores will be opened or how much the brand will grow is not enough. The risks of the investment, realistic revenue expectations, cost structure, and payback period must also be clearly communicated.
A good franchise system explains not only the dream but also the risks to the investor.
As the number of branches grows, how do you measure and correct deviations in cup quality and service standards?
The biggest challenge in coffee chain growth is being able to deliver the same experience at the hundredth store as at the first one.
This requires product recipes, coffee weights, machine settings, brewing times, and serving standards to be measurable. Training and operational procedures should also support this standard.
In an international system like Mikel Coffee, global standards serve as an important reference. However, simply having the standard on paper is not enough. Early detection of deviations is necessary through field audits, mystery shopper programs, customer feedback, product and operational checks, and regular training.
I particularly believe in the importance of data here, because you cannot manage a standard that you cannot measure.
If the number of branches grows but the standards don't spread at the same rate, then the brand isn't actually growing; only the number of stores is increasing.
How do you differentiate between the point at which opening a new store in the same city expands the market and the point at which it divides the revenue of an existing store?
This is one of the issues that supply chains need to manage most carefully as they grow.
Not every new store creates new customers. Sometimes, it distributes the same customers between two stores. Therefore, a new store should be evaluated not only on its own feasibility but also in conjunction with the reach of existing stores.
The customer's point of arrival, pedestrian and vehicular traffic, delivery areas, competitors' locations, and the customer profile of the existing store should be analyzed. The additional demand that the new store will generate should also be included in this analysis.
If a new store significantly increases a brand's total revenue and customer base, it means the market is growing. However, if a significant portion of its revenue is being transferred from the existing store, then the new store has started taking a share of the existing store's revenue.
In franchise systems in particular, this balance needs to be carefully managed. A fair balance must be struck between the brand's growth objectives and the economic sustainability of the existing investor.
In which areas should an international system be localized in Türkiye, and in which areas should it remain rigid?
When a global brand comes to Türkiye, it's not right for them to either implement everything as is or adapt everything to the local market.
Certain segments of the product portfolio, campaigns, communication style, store usage patterns, and some commercial practices can be adapted to local consumer habits.
However, the fundamental standards of coffee—product quality, brand identity, recipes, hygiene, service standards, and basic operating systems—must be maintained. Because when a consumer walks through the doors of an international brand, they are buying a certain brand promise.
Localization should bring the brand closer to the market; it should not change the brand's identity.
What is the first warning sign of unsustainable growth in a coffee chain?
I think the first sign is when the number of stores starts growing faster than the organization's carrying capacity.
New stores are opening, but if training isn't adequate, field teams can't provide sufficient support to the stores, and the criteria for proper location are relaxed, then the danger has begun. Lowering standards in franchise investor selection and prioritizing other factors over the performance of existing stores are also signs of this problem.
There is an important distinction here: growing and multiplying are not the same thing.
Real growth is not just about the number of stores, but also about improvements in store economics, human resources, operational quality, supply systems, and franchise investor satisfaction.
If one of these consistently lags behind, growth will eventually start to strain the system itself.
In Türkiye, what is the main gap in the sector: new brands, the right location, qualified human resources, or differentiation?
I believe Türkiye needs brands that can differentiate themselves and establish sustainable business models, rather than just new coffee brands.
Today, many brands have similar products, store designs, menus, and even communication styles. In such an environment, competition often revolves around location and price.
On the other hand, while the sector is growing rapidly, the qualified workforce is not developing at the same pace. There is a serious need for training and management for everyone, from baristas to store managers, field managers to franchise investors.
Therefore, the problem isn't just location or human resources. The real challenge lies in bringing together differentiation, the right location, qualified personnel, and economically viable stores within the same system.
Are there too many coffee brands in Türkiye?
Yes, I think there are too many coffee brands that are similar to each other. However, I don't interpret this as "there's no room for new coffee brands in Türkiye anymore."
The market may have room for new brands; however, these brands need to offer consumers a new reason to choose them. Simply offering the same coffee, similar decor, a similar menu, and a similar pricing policy under a different logo is becoming increasingly insufficient.
I believe the real differentiation in the coming period will not be in the number of brands, but in the quality of the business model. Some brands will grow, some will merge, some will shrink, and some will withdraw from the market. This is a natural consolidation process.
There may be many coffee brands in Türkiye, but the number of sustainable coffee brands is not as high as we might think.
Would you start a coffee brand from scratch today?
I definitely wouldn't have started it just because "the coffee industry is growing."
But if I can offer a clear differentiation to the consumer, if I can set up the store economics correctly, and if I have a strong product story, then yes, I would. In addition, I need to be able to create a system that can replicate the model at the same standard across multiple locations.
The word system is critical for me.
Designing a logo, opening a store, and creating a social media account are relatively easy. The challenge is creating a profitable, measurable, teachable, auditable, and replicable business model. This distinction becomes even more crucial, especially if you're considering franchising.
Today, starting a new coffee brand requires courage; but franchising it requires a system before courage.
What will be the most talked-about topic regarding a cup of coffee in 2030?
I think we'll be talking much more about the accessibility and true cost of coffee in 2030.
Climate change, transformations in production regions, agricultural productivity, water resources, logistics, energy, and labor costs will increasingly affect both the availability and price of coffee.
Consumers are also changing. They will increasingly question where the coffee comes from, how it is produced, what share the producer gets in the value chain, and what brands are actually doing in terms of sustainability.
Technology and data will continue to transform personalization, loyalty programs, and operational efficiency in stores.
Therefore, perhaps in 2030 we will be asking the question more often: “What is the true cost of a cup of coffee?”
This cost won't just include the coffee beans. It will also include the cost of the climate, the producer, logistics, labor, technology, and sustainability.
Coffee will never disappear. However, being able to access coffee at the quality and price balance we are used to today may become one of the most important issues for the sector in the coming years.
About Erol Işık
Erol Işık is an industry professional with many years of experience in management and consulting in franchise systems, management, and investment. He serves as the Deputy General Manager at Mikel Coffee Türkiye, where he focuses on franchise structuring, sustainable growth, store economics, and investment models.
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