The Next Big Question for Türkiye’s Coffee Industry: Not How Many Locations Do You Have, but How Efficient Are They?
Coffee chains in Türkiye continue to grow. But a rising number of stores does not mean that every location has a sound business model. In the first installment of our series, we speak with Ferit Özkaşıkçı, Editor-in-Chief of Kahve Dergisi, about the industry’s growth potential, vulnerable business models, and the changes ahead through 2030.
Our guest explains why growth can no longer be measured solely by the number of new stores opened. For him, the defining question in the years ahead is: How efficiently does each store operate, and what kind of experience gives customers a reason to return?
Does the increase in coffee shop locations in Türkiye truly match the growth in consumption? Which indicators do you use to assess this?
The expansion of coffee chains in Türkiye points to strong market potential. However, an increase in store numbers alone should not be taken as proof that consumption is growing at the same pace. New stores in an area may create additional demand, or they may simply divide the existing customer base among themselves.
I believe there is still room for growth in Türkiye. Coffee consumption and the ways people use cafés are changing. Even so, assessing the market’s potential requires looking beyond the total number of locations to customer numbers per store, repeat visits, sales per square metre, and operating profitability.
In my projections for 2026–2030, I expect annual growth of 8–9% in the overall market, 12–15% in the premium segment, and 5–6% in the traditional franchise segment. These are forecasts about the industry’s direction, not results that have already been achieved.
What common mistake did brands that closed, changed hands, or scaled back over the past five years make?
Many coffee brands are competing for the same customers rather than attracting new ones. When similar concepts multiply in the same area, each new store does not necessarily increase overall demand to the same extent.
This pressure is especially noticeable in locations with limited demand and shopping malls with high rents. In my view, the most vulnerable brands are those that give customers no clear reason to choose them, expand their franchise networks faster than their operations can support, or depend on a narrow range of location types.
What is the difference between the number of locations and the financial health of the stores?
The number of locations is a visible measure of growth, but it does not show how well each store is performing. A chain can expand rapidly while its profit per store declines. High revenue alone is not enough, either; what matters is how much remains after rent, staffing, raw materials, and energy costs.
As we approach 2027, I believe the industry’s question will shift from “How many stores do you have?” to “How much value and profit does each store generate?” Alongside the right location, the right concept, a consistent customer experience, well-managed operations, and effective use of technology will be decisive.
Which business model is more vulnerable today?
How a business is managed matters more than the type of model it follows. A well-run neighbourhood café or franchise location can succeed. Businesses that expand without standing out, fail to generate enough revenue for their size, or rely solely on franchise sales to grow will face greater pressure.
For larger stores in particular, the contribution of every square metre is becoming more important. As rent, energy, and staffing costs rise, space that goes unused or does not generate enough revenue can become a significant burden.
Serving quality coffee is no longer enough on its own to set a brand apart. A brand also needs to answer this question: Why should customers choose you in particular?
What does Türkiye’s coffee industry not discuss enough?
We tend to discuss the industry’s future only in terms of new stores and new brands. Yet significant risks affect everything from coffee sourcing to the price of a cup: the climate crisis, currency fluctuations, volatility in Arabica prices, energy and labour costs, and geopolitical developments.
These should not be treated as temporary problems. Brands need to factor them into decisions about product development, pricing, sourcing, and investment.
Are brands driving the growth of coffee culture, or are consumers pushing brands to change?
It works both ways. Brands introduce new products and experiences, while consumers decide which ones become part of their lives. Sometimes a brand’s offering creates a new habit; at other times, consumer expectations push a brand to change.
Today, this interaction shapes many decisions, from menus and store design to digital ordering and loyalty programmes.
Do you expect closures, acquisitions, and mergers over the next five years?
Yes, I think mergers and acquisitions could become more common in the coming years. Rent, staffing, financing, and raw material costs may put particular pressure on small and medium-sized chains. Larger players, meanwhile, may benefit from economies of scale in purchasing, logistics, and technology investment.
I expect the industry to move from asking “How fast are you growing?” to asking “How efficiently are you managing your existing network?” This shift may be challenging for some brands, but it could also lead to stronger business models.
Are there too many coffee brands in Türkiye?
No. The problem is not so much the number of brands as the concentration of similar ones in the same areas, without offering customers anything distinctive. There is still room for new brands, but it will become increasingly difficult to build a lasting business with just a new name and a standard menu.
Would you start a coffee brand from scratch today?
Yes, I would. Cafés are no longer just places to drink coffee. They have also become convenient options for lunch, places to work for a while, and spaces to socialise. Many businesses have responded by expanding their menus to include everything from sandwiches to salads.
Before launching a new brand, though, I would first define the need it serves. The concept, menu, space, and business model should all support the same idea.
What will we be talking about most when we discuss a cup of coffee in 2030?
I think we will talk not only about the coffee itself, but also about the experience surrounding it. Younger consumers’ willingness to try new products, their relationship with digital channels, and their expectations of personalised experiences will influence brands.
Loyalty will involve more than collecting points. Brands that understand their customers, communicate with them at the right time, and create a sense of community will stand out. In the future, opening more stores will matter, but so will giving people a reason to return.
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